October PPI: gold's last inflation test before the Fed

Gold is going into Friday's inflation print on its back foot, and the print itself is unusually well telegraphed. What is not telegraphed is which part of it the market will trade.

What prints at 13:30 UTC

October's Producer Price Index is released at 8:30 ET on Friday 13 November, which is 13:30 UTC (Investing.com calendar). It is the last CPI or PPI report before the Fed's 8-9 December meeting, which is why a second-tier number carries a first-tier reaction.

The consensus compiled by Dow Jones as of 11 November looks for +0.4% on headline final demand and +0.3% on the core, after September's +1.3% and +0.7%, with the yearly headline rate seen at 6.6% from 6.3% and core steady near 5.0% (StockTitan, Investing.com). Goldman Sachs is a tenth softer on both months, at +0.3% headline and +0.2% core (BYDFI preview).

Do not confuse the two numbers. The 6.6% yearly rate is close to mechanical: October 2025 drops out of the base at only +0.2% unadjusted, so any unadjusted monthly gain above roughly 0.2% lifts the annual rate above September's 6.3% (StockTitan). A 6.6% print is not evidence of a new inflation impulse. The seasonally adjusted core month is the only part of this release that carries information.

The tape you are trading into

• Spot $3,881.70 by 13:36 ET on Thursday, 2.7% lower, the weakest since October 2025, with a session low of $3,852 (CNBC, FXStreet).
• The dollar index at 103.48, within reach of a 19-month high, and the 10-year Treasury yield back above 5.00% for the first time in three weeks (FXStreet, Bullionvault).
• WTI at $88.79, up 2.7%, after the US president said no deal with Iran was needed (CNBC). Oil is now the inflation transmission channel, which matters for how a PPI surprise is read.
• December Fed pricing: 85% on 25bp and 15% on 50bp on the CME screen quoted by FXStreet, against 94%/6% in Bullionvault's capture of the same tool a little later. Two feeds, two snapshots, one message: a hike is fully priced and the tail is towards 50bp.

The desk's own series agrees with the wire to the dollar. Thursday ran from a $3,995.96 high in the 01:00 UTC bar to $3,853.56 at 15:00, a $142 session against a 20-day mean range of $63, with ATR(14) at $71.76 (Thursday's signal).

The level grid

• Support: $3,852, Thursday's low and the first level the sell side has to break; then $3,800 (FXStreet).
• Resistance: $3,900, then the day's high near $4,000, then $4,100, with the 50-day average at $4,165 and the 100-day at $4,199 (FXStreet).
• Pre-print range: $3,853 to $3,900, about $47, which is two-thirds of a single ATR. The market is coiled inside a day's noise, and that compression is what a release this size resolves.

The asymmetry, not the forecast

Prediction markets are not centred on the consensus. Kalshi prices 55% above 0.4% on the month, 39% above 0.5% and 35% above 0.6% (Kalshi PPI market). The distribution is skewed hot, which changes what each outcome means.

• Hot — core 0.5% or more, or headline 0.6% or more. Real yields push further above 5%, the dollar takes out 103.50, and 50bp December odds widen from 15%. Gold loses $3,852 and the next objective is $3,800. This scenario is invalidated by a 15-minute close back above $3,900 with the print already out — a hot number that cannot hold the low was priced in advance.
• In line — 0.4% headline, 0.3% core. This is the single most likely bucket and it is not dovish: a third of the market is positioned above it. Expect a relief bounce into $3,900-$3,950 that gets sold unless $3,960 is reclaimed on an hourly close. In line keeps the range; it does not end the downtrend.
• Soft — headline 0.2% or less with core at 0.2%. This is the priced-out tail, and it is the only branch that pays a squeeze: $40-$60 to $3,950, with $4,000 the stretch target. It has to come from the core, not from energy — with WTI up 2.7% in a session, a headline miss driven by fuel prices will be dismissed within the hour, and that bounce fails at $3,900.

Before you touch the print

The first 60 to 90 seconds after 13:30 UTC are not tradeable. Spreads on XAUUSD widen from a dollar or two to several, stop orders fill at the worst quote in the window, and on some feeds Thursday's $3,853 low and the Friday open disagree by $10. Any position held through the release is a bet on the quote engine, not on the PPI. Size for the widen, place nothing resting within $5 of spot into the print, and let the first two 15-minute bars print before acting on any of the levels above.

The desk's own 13 November plan flattens at 13:15 UTC, fifteen minutes before the release, for exactly this reason. The reasoning behind that trade and its numbers is on the signals board; how the previous inflation surprise repriced gold is in October CPI runs hot; and the macro thread this release belongs to is filed under PPI and real yields. The news board carries the reaction once the number is out.

Not financial advice. Consensus figures are the Dow Jones compilation as of 11 November 2026 and are subject to revision; levels are derived from Thursday 12 November prints and expire after the release session. Broker feeds differ from the reference prints quoted here by several dollars around a release of this size.

Sources: Investing.com economic calendar, StockTitan PPI preview, BYDFI PPI preview, Kalshi PPI market, CNBC gold, FXStreet gold, Bullionvault yields.