Real yields

US 10-year yields net of inflation expectations — the cleanest single driver of the gold price.

24 articles on this topic

  1. News & Macro

    Gold demand set records in Q3. None of it set a floor Newest

    The World Gold Council's Q3 report shows record value, record ETF holdings and 321t of official buying, while gold trades 8% below the quarter's average price…

    ·6 min read
    • $3,920.63
    • $3,895.59
    • $3,969.96
    • $4,262.20
  2. Signals

    XAUUSD signal: sell the $3,966 bounce, target $3,898

    Gold clawed back $69 of Friday's $146 drop and stalled at $3,970. The desk sells the retest at $3,966: one order, a $68 stop, $3,898 first…

    ·7 min read
    • $3,875.44
    • $3,891.36
    • $3,970.31
    • $3,944.71
  3. News & Macro

    Gold has a buyer under $4,000. Silver has a chemistry problem

    Silver lost 18.70% in October to gold's 6.78%, and the gold/silver ratio ran from 68.80 to 78.89. The gap is not sentiment: a sixth straight deficit…

    ·6 min read
    • $3,875.44
    • $4,157.34
    • $4,000
    • $3,903
  4. News & Macro

    Gold lost 6.8% in October and the last session took half

    Gold closed October at $3,875.44, down 6.78% — the final session alone took $146 of it, on a chip-led rout while Treasury yields fell. The month's…

    ·6 min read
    • $3,875.44
    • $3,884.90
    • $3,875
    • $3,885
  5. Signals

    XAUUSD signal: sell the $4,048 bounce, target $4,000

    Gold broke four rising lows and failed the 61.8% retrace while the dollar and the 10-year both fell. Friday's plan sells the $4,048 shelf with $4,096…

    ·7 min read
    • $4,022.34
    • $4,067.66
    • $4,020.56
    • $4,020
  6. News & Macro

    Core PCE in line: gold gives the print back within an hour

    September core PCE printed 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, exactly on consensus, with Q3 GDP at 3.4% against 3.1%. Gold added $6 in the first five…

    ·4 min read
    • $4,025.14
    • $4,023.35
    • $4,032.02
    • $4,027.03
  7. Signals

    XAUUSD signal: buy the $4,048 dip, target $4,103

    Gold dumped to $4,025 on the Fed statement, then reversed $57 during Warsh's press conference. Thursday's plan buys the $4,048 retracement with $3,993 at risk, targeting…

    ·7 min read
    • $4,062.43
    • $4,028.19
    • $4,060.16
    • $4,042
  8. News & Macro

    Gold Forecasts Were Cut Again. The 2027 Number Went Up

    The Reuters poll of 30 analysts cut its 2026 gold median to $4,495, down just $14, and raised 2027 to $4,650. The consensus is arguing about…

    ·6 min read
    • $4,060.54
    • $3,989.33
    • $4,495
    • $4,509
  9. News & Macro

    The Fed Meets Wednesday. Gold's Real Test Is Thursday.

    Gold closed at $4,060 after a 1.08% rally into the Fed, with a hold 88% priced and a December hike at 76-82%. The level grid, three…

    ·6 min read
    • $4,060.33
    • $3,989.33
    • $4,065.76
    • $4,056.66
  10. Signals

    XAUUSD signal: sell the $4,022 retest, target $3,963

    Gold closed its steepest week in more than four months at $3,996 with the FOMC on Wednesday. The desk sells the $4,022 retest: one order, $59…

    ·7 min read
    • $3,995.80
    • $4,000
    • $3,986.84
    • $3,975.64
  11. News & Macro

    Why 194,000 Jobless Claims Outweighed a Wider War

    Thursday's 194,000 claims print did more damage to gold than a widening Gulf war: the metal fell 2.3% to a ten-week low because the labour market…

    ·7 min read
    • $4,051.55
    • $4,034
    • $4,021
    • $4,028
  12. Signals

    XAUUSD signal: sell the $4,054 retest, target $3,995

    Gold broke the October floor and closed $97 lower near $4,028. The desk sells the $4,054 retest with a $59 stop, one order, and targets $3,995…

    ·7 min read
    • $4,028
    • $4,125.50
    • $4,140
    • $4,126.16
  13. Signals

    XAUUSD signal: sell the $4,144 retest, $4,105 is the pivot

    Gold closed Wednesday at $4,135 after a sweep to $4,105 left a four-touch cap at $4,141.8. The desk sells the $4,144 retest with a $54 stop…

    ·7 min read
    • $4,113.87
    • $4,141.82
    • $4,105.10
    • $4,135.15
  14. News & Macro

    Gold Priced the Fed. Sovereigns Are Buying the Floor.

    Spot gold fell a third straight session to $4,122 even as the dollar softened, with December hike odds at 89-94% - yet the PBoC added 23…

    ·6 min read
    • $4,121
    • $4,122
    • $4,142.60
    • $5,594.82
  15. Signals

    XAUUSD Signal, 21 Oct 2026 — The Housing Spike Was Sold; $4,111 Is the Line

    Gold spiked to $4,155.45 on a 7.3% collapse in pending home sales and closed the same hour at $4,142.91, finishing Tuesday at $4,121.66 with the $4,110.95…

    ·6 min read
    • $4,131.99
    • $4,111.71
    • $4,142.91
    • $4,121.66
  16. Signals

    Gold Gives Back a $4,184 Gap as Yields Hit 5.14%

    XAUUSD reversed a $4,184.84 opening gap to close $4,141.04 as the 10-year backed up to 5.144% on the Konarak strike report, leaving Thursday's $4,131.33 low as…

    ·7 min read
    • $4,184.84
    • $4,165.50
    • $4,190.39
    • $4,161.9
  17. News & Macro

    Gold Held, Silver Broke: The Hormuz Week That Priced Inflation, Not Fear

    Brent touched $110 and nine ships were attacked near Hormuz, yet gold closed 0.59% lower at $4,165.27 and silver fell 6.3% to $56.98 as December hike…

    ·6 min read
    • $4,165.27
    • $4,190.27
    • $4,216.89
    • $4,073.32
  18. Signals

    XAUUSD Signal, 19 Oct 2026 — Gap Risk Into a Hormuz Headline Week

    Gold closed the week near $4,165 inside a $4,147–$4,199 Friday range with three rising session lows behind it and Hormuz escalation risk ahead of Monday's open…

    ·6 min read
    • $4,155
    • $4,167
    • $4,167.14
    • $4,165.40
  19. News & Macro

    Gold ETF Inflows Hit a Record 4,256t While Gold Fell 8.5%

    September: gold ETFs took in US$10bn to a record 4,256 tonnes while COMEX money managers cut 84 tonnes — the divergence that framed gold's $4,150 base…

    ·6 min read
    • $4,100
    • $4,073
    • $4,162
    • $4,150
  20. Signals

    Haven Bid Into Warsh's IMF Dialogue: $4,144 Buy / $4,186 Sell

    Gold round-tripped Wednesday's CPI flush and traded Thursday near $4,150-4,165 as an AI-equity selloff drove a bond rally and the dollar slipped to 102.1. For Friday…

    ·5 min read
    • $4,140
    • $4,144.60
    • $4,162.80
    • $4,128
  21. News & Macro

    PPI News: 6.3% vs 5.3% Expected — XAUUSD Refuses to Break

    PPI news: September producer prices rose 1.3% m/m and 6.3% y/y against 5.3% expected, the hottest since 2022 — yet XAUUSD dipped only $12 before round-tripping…

    ·5 min read
    • $4,156.58
    • $4,073.41
    • $4,144.60
    • $4,148
  22. News & Macro

    September CPI at 3.7%: Gold Loses the Whole Range as October Hike Odds Double

    September CPI printed at 3.7% y/y against 3.6% expected with core at 2.6%, and gold paid for it immediately: a 1.7% slide to about $4,085 that…

    ·6 min read
    • $4,143
    • $4,200
    • $4,085
    • $4,087
  23. Signals

    CPI-Gated Range Playbook: $4,193 Sell / $4,118 Buy

    Gold trapped in a $4,143-$4,200 range ahead of the CPI print. Two conditional setups: sell the $4,190-4,196 rejection with SL $4,214, or buy the $4,118-4,124 Fibonacci…

    ·4 min read
    • $4,143
    • $4,200
    • $4,215
    • $4,220
  24. News & Macro

    September CPI: 90% Hike Odds and Gold Pinned at $4,150

    September CPI printed 3.7% against 3.6% expected and gold lost the $4,143 shelf within two hours, then $3,957.83 within eight sessions. The three scenarios this preview…

    ·5 min read
    • $4,146
    • $4,161
    • $4,143
    • $4,170

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Topics are how gold actually behaves

Most gold moves trace back to a handful of recurring drivers. Reading a hub end to end is the fastest way to see how the metal has responded to that driver over time.